December 22, 2009
The new $6500 tax credit for existing homeowners makes buying a new home more attractive for about 20 percent of owners according to a new Coldwell Banker survey released yesterday.
No doubt the tax breaks for both first-time and existing buyers will mean a lot of business for real estate brokerages, but Coldwell Banker is also focused on what happens after credits expire next spring.
“Our survey offers positive indicators that there are more existing homeowners considering a home purchase today than there were six months ago, and the majority of respondents say they would engage in ’smart spending’ that would directly benefit the U.S. economy,” said CB’s CEO Jim Gillespie in a prepared statement.
In interview with Real Estate Economy Watch, he shared some of his personal insights regarding the credit and its aftermath.
“There’s no doubt that the first-time homebuyer credit really worked this year. Every sale generated $60,000 in revenues and jobs for the local economy beyond the value of the transaction itself. Multiply 400,000 sales times $60,000 and you get an idea of the impact on the economy,” he said.
“Now we’re reaching out to our sales people across the country to make sure they are prepared for frequently asked questions about the new credits for existing buyers, whether they are move-up or move-down buyers.” However, it’s not just the credits that concern Gillespie. He’s also thinking about what happens to the market when the credit ends.
“Will there be a lot of scrambling among buyers to get in under the deadline like there was in October? This time, there has been clear communication early on as to when it will expire. The two month period to close should avoid a lot of uncertainty,” he said.
“What are the buyers going to look like after April 30? Right now there is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen. We’re in new territory.”
Founded in 1906, Coldwell Banker is the oldest real estate company, with nearly 3,900 independently owned and operated real estate offices in the US and around the world.
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December 10, 2009
First-time home buyers reached the highest market share on record during the past year, according to the latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers. The study was released here today at the 2009 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.
The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is the latest in a series of large national NAR surveys evaluating demographics, preferences, marketing and experiences of recent home buyers and sellers. Among national surveys, NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is unprecedented in size and scope.
Paul Bishop, NAR vice president of research, said several factors have been at play. “Tax incentives, record high affordability conditions and a pent-up demand brought a record share of first-time home buyers into the market,” he said. “These buyers are critical to housing and a general economic recovery because the market always heals from the bottom up – they absorb inventory, free existing owners to make a trade and stimulate related goods and services.”
The number of first-time home buyers rose to 47 percent of all home sales from 41 percent of transactions in last year’s study, and was the highest on record dating back to 1981. The previous high was 44 percent in 1991. “It’s interesting to note the last cyclical peak of first-time home buyers was during the last noteworthy economic downturn, with first-time buyers starting the chain reaction that led the nation out of recession,” Bishop said.
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December 10, 2009
(Boise Idaho) Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”
A large consumer study being released later today, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47 percent share of home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36 percent in 2006.
Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.
New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.
“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appears to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said.
He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8 percent in 2010.
The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.
“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4 percent this year, then rising 1.6 percent in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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December 10, 2009
Realtors® are the face of the housing market, the focal point of information, involvement and inventory, and the Federal Housing Administration is committed to help them be successful, FHA Housing Commissioner Dave Stevens told more than 1,000 Realtors® at a gathering here today.
“You help to stabilize the community, and without homeownership, there can be no stability in communities,” Stevens said. “Together, we must never let overexuberance overtake the housing market again, and interrupt the housing market and the lives of untold millions of Americans. Our goal must be nothing less than to craft a solid, sustainable housing market, a market with a secure foundation for the future.”
Stevens said he and Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Housing and Urban Development, recognize that the National Association of Realtors has been at the forefront of efforts to address the housing crisis, and he has met with NAR on several occasions to consider their concerns. FHA has taken direct action on a number of those concerns.
Stevens announced that effective Monday, Nov. 16, FHA will no longer require a second appraisal on high-balance loans for properties in declining markets. “We did not find our previous policy to be particularly helpful and were very concerned about the additional burden on lenders and consumers,” Stevens said. He noted the policy change will bring industry alignment, streamline loan processing and reduce costs to consumers.
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